Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Obama's health care law may boil down to a single judge

Four federal judges have reviewed President Obama's health care law and split evenly on whether it is constitutional -- now four appeals courts get their chance.

Millions of voters have offered their views of the health care plan, and so have 535 members of Congress.

In the end, the fate of Obama's signature domestic program may well boil down to a single person: U.S. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy.

"Nothing matters in the federal courts until Anthony Kennedy flips his magic coin," writes the Ace of Spades HQ blog. MSNBC's Joe Scarborough, a lawyer and a former congressman, said this morning, "It's going to come down to Anthony Kennedy."

Many observers, including some in the White House, expect health care lawsuits to wind up in the U.S. Supreme Court and suspect it could wind up being one of those 5-4 decisions.

Supporters of the health care law have high hopes for four Democrat-appointed justices: Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan.

Opponents of what they call "Obamacare" count on four Republican-appointed conservatives: Chief Justice John Roberts, Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito.

That leaves Justice Kennedy, a Ronald Reagan appointee who often decides 5-4 cases.

Congressional Republicans say they will maintain efforts to repeal the health care law or at least undercut its funding.

Health care will probably play a major political role when President Obama seeks re-election in 2012 -- perhaps the same year the Supreme Court takes up the health care case.

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